Posts Tagged: ‘Presidential Elections’

My ISideWith Experiment

June 2, 2016 Posted by zachary

This past week, Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee for President, was criticized for saying that he agreed with Bernie Sanders on “73% of the issues”. In these reports, Governor Johnson cites the popular political quiz site ISideWith.com. This site asks you a series of questions and then uses your responses to tell you how your answers compare to popular Presidential candidates.

I decided to take a look at the site and do a little experiment of my own. ISideWith can tell you multiple things, depending on how you answer your questions. ISideWith asks a series of questions, but not all of the questions are viewable without clicking a link. The same is true with the answers. Each question has two default answers “Yes” or “No” or some variant of that. However, most of the questions have multiple expanded answers.

With all this in mind, I decided to take the test four times. Here are the results of each of those tests.

My first time through, I answered only the default questions using only the default answers.

iside_with1As you can see, based on these results I side with Governor Johnson  on 91% of the issues. I also side with Clinton on 79% of the issues, Stein on 78%, Sanders on 77%, and Trump on 63%.

My second time through, I answered all the expanded questions using only the default answers.

iside_with2This time through, my score with Johnson improves while every other candidate drops with the most dramatic drop being Clinton by 11 percentage points.

My third time through, I answered only the default questions but I used the expanded answers where they applied.

iside_with3My overlap with Governor Johnson actually falls a bit, but he is still my #1 guy. Trump drops considerably. Hillary improves a bit, but her placement remains the same.

My final time through, I answered all the expanded questions using expanded responses when applicable.

iside_with4Governor Johnson springs back up to his second highest overlap with me. Everyone else stays stays about the same.

Update: I took the Quiz a 5th time and actually weighted my responses. This changed things considerably.

isidewith5Here my alignment with Trump falls considerably and Bernie jumps up a percentage point above Stein.

If we average all four five scores of each candidate, these are the results. I side with Governor Johnson 91.25% 91.2% of the time. I side with Stein 77.25% 75.8% of the time. I side with Sanders 75.25% 74.6% of the time. I side with Clinton 70.5% 68.4% of the time. Finally, I side with Trump 57.75% 54% of the time. What all this tells me is that my political views are more liberal than they are conservative.

What is the point of all this? Nothing much. I think that ISideWith is a fun exercise in political science, but it is not an exact science. Part of the problem is that the quiz doesn’t include a lot of questions that many of these candidates find important. Additionally, some questions don’t have answers that reflect all possible positions of these candidates. So while this quiz is fun, I wouldn’t recommend using it as your only guide in the election. Nor would I recommend using these results to attack or insult any candidates or voters.

If you are interested in taking fun political quizzes, I also recommend taking the World’s Smallest Political Quiz to find out where you fall on the political spectrum.

Johnson/Weld Is The Only Serious Choice For LP Presidential Ticket

May 26, 2016 Posted by zachary

This weekend is the Libertarian Party National Convention. At this event, delegates from around the US will convene and nominate our candidates for President and Vice President. There are a lot of people running for the LP nomination for President and Vice President, but I feel there is only one ticket that makes sense for the growth and strength of this party.

There are currently three front runners for President. Each one has picked their preferred running mate. They all bring something interesting to the table and express some good and some bad elements to the table.

Out of all these candidates, there is only one ticket that I feel works best for the LP and the US. That ticket is former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and his chosen running mate, former Massachusetts Governor William Weld. Why these two? Because they bring something no other candidate for the LP nominations have, experience and name recognition.

Both of these men are successful Republican governors who served with Democratic controlled legislatures. Even with the law writers stacked against them, they managed to cut taxes, the size of government and overall spending. They managed to do the impossible, work peacefully and compromise with political opponents to pass liberty expanding laws in their respective states.

Are they perfect Libertarians? Absolutely not. Neither am I and neither are you. They made mistakes and hold some opinions that many Libertarians have a hard time swallowing. Both Gary Johnson and William Weld have done and said things in the past that I don’t agree with. However, they have both apologized for and explained their decisions and how they have changed. That to me shows wisdom and strength. Things that can only come from real experience in a political landscape.

I feel that people can change as they are given new information. I feel that Johnson and Weld have done that and continue to do it. That is the important thing. I don’t think I can ever trust someone that claims to be a perfect Libertarian.

They also bring name recognition. Both are successful two term Governors. Gary Johnson ran as the LP nominee in 2012. This experience has already led to Johnson being included in several national polls, something that no other LP candidate can claim. These polls show Johnson already polling in the double digits against the presumed Republican and Democratic nominees. This polling is incredibly necessary for a serious LP ticket. Without the ability to poll well, the LP will not have a chance this election.

The Presidential Debates, run by the R and D controlled Commission on Presidential Debates, are an important part of running for President. If the LP nominee does not get into those debates, there is no chance that we will actually make a difference this year. With Johnson already polling just a few points away from the 15% requirement by the CPD, they have a chance to get in those debates and spread our message.

It is with all this, that I feel we will have the best chance of reaching out to disenchanted Democratic and Republican voters who want anyone else besides Trump and Clinton. With the insanity on display by the Republican and Democratic parties, a breath of fresh air and seriousness is the only way to compete. There is no way we can out crazy those two and expect to make a difference. We have to compete on experience and leadership.

Taking all this into account, Johnson/Weld is the only ticket I see that results in the most successful LP run for President to date. Honestly, I have no aspirations to a Libertarian being elected to President this year. However, if that were to happen, it will only be with a Johnson/Weld ticket.

What Would Happen If All Registered Independents Voted That Way In Oklahoma?

September 19, 2012 Posted by zachary

Voter Registration trends in OklahomaA few days ago, I came across this line graph showing voter registration trends in Oklahoma. This graph shows a trend of disenfranchisement in the Democratic Party, growth within the Republican Party, a near flat lining of Independent voters over the course of about 16 years. This got me thinking about elections in Oklahoma and how these numbers correlate to actual voter turnout. It also had me thinking of just how much power the independent voter has in the Oklahoma election.

As you can see from this graph, Independent voters equal to about 11% of the potential voting pool. Democrats represent 47%. Republicans represent 41%. But actual election results paint a far different picture. One in which election results do not match voter registration at all.

I am going to look at the last 3 Presidential elections. In each of these elections, the Republican candidate won in Oklahoma despite being outnumbered by Democrats alone. Yet, in each of these elections, the voter turnout was far lower than the total registration numbers.  So let’s start in 2000.

2000 Presidential Election

The 2000 Presidential election is the only one of the three we will be visiting here that was not limited to 2 choices. This election actually had four candidates that Oklahoma voters could choose from. However, the results from this election did not deviate much from the trends shown when viewing the last 3. Here are the results:

  • George W. Bush (Rep) – 744,337 votes
  • Al Gore (Dem) – 474,276 votes
  • Patrick Buchanan (Ref) – 9,014 votes
  • Harry Browne (Lib)- 6,602 votes
  • Total Votes Cast – 1,234,229

Now, let’s look at the voter registration numbers as of January 2000:

  • Democratic Party – 1,189,332
  • Republican Party – 734,382
  • Independent – 174,649
  • Libertarian Party – 267
  • Reform Party – 120
  • Total Registration – 2,098,750

As you can see from the numbers, there is an almost complete lack of any correlation between registration and voter turn out. The only numbers that make any bit of sense is that of the Republican Party and the two minor parties on the ballot. However, It is quite likely that not all those who registered as Republican voted at all. So much of those votes cast could have come from registered Democrats and Independents. What we can see clearly is that only 58.8% of those registered actually voted.

2004 Presidential Election

The 2004 Presidential election returns us to a cycle in which Oklahoma voters were limited to two choices for President. However, even with this significant change, the election results were not too indifferent from that of 2000. Here are the results:

  • George W. Bush (Rep) – 959,792 votes
  • John Kerry (Dem) – 503,966 votes
  • Total Votes Cast – 1,463,758

Now, let’s look at the voter registration numbers as of January 2004:

  • Democratic Party – 1,022,442
  • Republican Party – 720,121
  • Independent – 195,334
  • Libertarian Party – 455
  • Reform Party – 25
  • Total Registration – 1,938,377

Surprisingly, we see far fewer registrations that year than we did 4 years prior. We can also see that the total number of voters jumped from 58.8% in 2000 to 75.5%. The loss of 160,373 voters over the course of 4 years does not correlate here either. It seems that there was a generally greater interest in the Presidential election that year.

2008 Presidential Election

The 2008 election continues the cycle of only 2 choices for President. However, this is the first of the 3 elections in which the candidate chosen by Oklahoman voters did not win the General Election. Here are the Results:

  •  John McCain (Rep) – 960,165 votes
  • Barack Obama (Dem) – 502,496 votes
  • Total Votes Cast – 1,462,661

Now, let’s look at the voter registration numbers as of January 2008:

  •  Democratic Party – 1,012,594
  • Republican Party – 790,713
  • Independent – 219,230
  • Total Registration – 2,022,537

You will note that from the previous election, there was very little change in voter turn out. We also see that the Reform and Libertarian Parties were officially dropped from party status. Voters registered under those parties were reassigned to Independent. This time we see a 72.3% turn out rate, meaning the increase in registered voters did not correlate with voter turn out.

2012 Presidential Election

As we move into the 2012 election season, Oklahomans will be treated with not 2 but 3 Presidential options. If all goes as planned, the Americans Elect Party will have Gary Johnson as its candidate on the Oklahoma ballot. In anticipation of this election, we will use current voter registration numbers and the data from previous elections to hopefully predict what the turn out and results might be.

2012 Registration Numbers

Here are the voter registration numbers as of January 2012:

  • Democratic Party – 943,283
  • Republican Party – 828,257
  • Independent – 229,070
  • Total Registration – 2,000,610

As you can see, we have seen a slight drop from 4 years prior in total number of registered voters. You can also see some considerable change in the numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans. Democrats continue to lose members and Republicans continue to gain. Keep in mind that these numbers reflect voter registrations in January. Since then, the Americans Elect Party has gained official state recognition and there has been some change. According to recent reports the numbers are as follows:

  • Democratic Party – 942,388
  • Republican Party – 850,560
  • Americans Elect Party – 5
  • Independent – 234,141

Even this does not paint a full picture as there are technically more than 5 members of the Americans Elect Party at this time. However, it is still reflective of major trends in the election. As you can see from these numbers, in just a few months, the Republican Party gained 22,000 members. This is probably due to high demand in Oklahoma to unseat Obama.

2012 Presidential Election Predictions

So what does this meant for the coming election? What will we see as the turn out? For this we will look at the previous elections and see where trends lie. If we just look at the last two elections we can expect a roughly 73-75% voter turn out in which the Republican candidate will win by a ratio of nearly 2:1. With a third candidate on the ballot, if previous trends are to be followed, I don’t see that win ratio changing much. Looking back at the 2000 election, the ratio was closer to 1.5:1 when combining Democratic, Libertarian and Reform votes.

So my question at this time is, what would happen to the election if all registered Independents voted that way? What would happen if all registered Independents voted for Gary Johnson? First, Johnson would not win Oklahoma on the Independent vote alone. However, it could shake things up. I am going to make some assumptions on the minds of voters here. Let’s say that voter turnout will be 75% following the current trends. We will spread that evenly among all party registrations. Meaning 75% of registered voters in each party and Independents vote in the election. So this is the hypothetical voter turnout, based on the second set of registration numbers (adding 5 more Americans Elect members to accommodate more recent changes):

  • Democratic Party – 706,791
  • Republican Party – 637,920
  • Americans Elect Party – 7
  • Independent – 175,605
  • Total Votes Cast – 1,520,323

Since Republicans have won the last 3 Presidential elections in Oklahoma, It is clear that a number of Independent and Democratic voters crossed party lines to vote for the Republican candidate. Which means that somewhere along the lines of 137,000 or more Democrats vote Republican and nearly all Independent voters vote Republican.

If we base predictions on the 2000 election, we could see a minority of votes going to Gary Johnson. Since that election saw a much lower voter turn out than the last two, it doesn’t follow those trends. But it can be something we can learn by. In that election, 15,616 voters voted for the Reform and Libertarian candidates combined. That is roughly 1.3% of the total votes cast. If we adjust that up while keeping a grounded view, we could say that in today’s election climate 3.3% would vote for Gary Johnson. We would see this spread:

  • Republican Candidate – 999,639
  • Barack Obama – 500,920
  • Gary Johnson – 19,764

This brings us back to that near 2:1 win ratio for the Republican Candidate. Back to the same ole, same ole. In this case, the Americans Elect Party will not receive enough votes to retain party qualification in the state and third parties will be back where they were before. Nothing will have changed, Oklahoma will still have no real effect on the national election.

However, if all Independent and Americans Elect Party Members vote for Gary Johnson we have the following spread:

  • Republican Candidate – 843,791
  • Barack Obama – 500,920
  • Gary Johnson – 175,612

In this situation, The Republican candidate will still win Oklahoma. However, Gary Johnson would have helped the Americans Elect Party to retain official party status in Oklahoma, having received 11.5% of the vote. This would be a major victory for a third party in Oklahoma on its own. Very few parties have been able to remain ballot qualified since the ballot access process was changed in 1974.

Of course the absolute best case scenario would be for Gary Johnson to win Oklahoma. This would take some effort in getting disenfranchised Democrats and Republicans to vote for him. If those 137,000 Democrats and a similar percentage of Republicans, about 21.5% or 151,960 voters, (View the Primary results for the potential number of disenfranchised Republicans) voted for Johnson we could see a much closer race.

  • Republican Candidate – 554,831
  • Barack Obama – 500,920
  • Gary Johnson – 464,572

Even in this scenario, the Republican candidate would still win, but by a much narrower margin. For Gary Johnson to win completely, he would need to pull far more votes from both the Republican Candidate and Obama. At this time, I find this scenario to be the least likely, but still a good thing to hope for.

Conclusion

So this is my suggestion to all registered Independents and disenfranchised Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma. If you are going to vote, vote for Gary Johnson. Don’t listen to the naysayers who claim you are “voting for Obama.” Oklahoma probably still won’t go to Obama at all. Oklahoma hasn’t gone to a Democrat in many many years. However, voting for Gary Johnson will spark a huge change in Oklahoma election history in which a 3rd party becomes a viable option and a force for change on a state level. That is one of the best things that could happen. If by some chance, a significant portion of Republicans and Democrats decide to join in on the vote for Gary Johnson and he wins the state, even better for Oklahoma.

So again, don’t vote against your fears, vote your conscience. Vote Gary Johnson for President. That is the only way to truly win.

Letter To NewsOK Regarding Ballot Access In OKlahoma Compared To Egypt

September 19, 2012 Posted by zachary

Every once and a while, I send a letter to the editor of the Daily Oklahoman (or rather NewsOK.com). I think I have only ever had one turned down since it was too close to the last one I sent in. But I am always interested in seeing what edits they make before publishing the letter. Back in May, I wrote one about the state of ballot access in Oklahoma compared to Egypt. Here is the letter I sent to NewsOK:

During the week of May 21-25, Egyptians will get the long desired and much fought for opportunity to elect a new president for their nation. They paid for this opportunity with their blood. We as Americans and specifically Oklahomans cheered them on through their trials and protests to gain that right. As a result of their efforts, their blood, they will have the opportunity to choose a new President from a slate of thirteen candidates. Thirteen! How wonderful it must feel for these people to choose a president from such a wide array of view points representing the wide variety of people in their nation.

While we applaud them on in this wonderful demonstration of democracy in action, Oklahoma’s Senate is once again sitting on an opportunity to bring similar democracy to Oklahoma. For many years, the Oklahoma Legislature has been presented with bills that would have brought Egyptian level democracy to this state. Yet, every time it has been brought to a vote, someone stands in its way. This year, this has happened again.

This November, when Oklahomans take to the polls to elect the President, they will be presented with a ballot containing a grand total of two candidates for President. Two! What a contrast. Why should Egyptians be cheered on as they vote from thirteen candidates while we stand complacent voting from two? Why are we complacent in the illusion of democracy in this fine state?

This is the letter that was actually published:

Egyptians recently got the long-desired and much fought for opportunity to elect a new president for their nation. They paid for this opportunity with their blood. We Americans and specifically Oklahomans cheered them on through their trials and protests to gain that right. As a result of their efforts and their blood, they’ll have the opportunity to choose a new president from a slate of 13 candidates. Thirteen! How wonderful it must feel for these people to choose a president from such a wide array of viewpoints representing the wide variety of people in their nation.

While we applaud them on in this wonderful demonstration of democracy in action, Oklahoma is once again sitting on an opportunity to bring similar democracy to Oklahoma. For many years, the Legislature has been presented with bills that would have brought Egyptian-level democracy to this state. Yet every time it’s been brought to a vote, someone stands in its way. It happened again this year.

This November, when Oklahomans take to the polls to elect the president, they’ll be presented with a ballot containing a grand total of two candidates for president. Two! What a contrast. Why should Egyptians be cheered on as they vote from 13 candidates while we stand complacent voting from two? Why are we complacent in the illusion of democracy in this fine state?

Not really a bad edit job. I hope to write more to them and I need to write more here and on the other sites I run. Getting out of practice.

 

What Would Happen If All Registered Independents Voted That Way In Oklahoma?

August 15, 2012 Posted by zachary

Voter Registration trends in OklahomaA few days ago, I came across this line graph showing voter registration trends in Oklahoma. This graph shows a trend of disenfranchisement in the Democratic Party, growth within the Republican Party, a near flat lining of Independent voters over the course of about 16 years. This got me thinking about elections in Oklahoma and how these numbers correlate to actual voter turnout. It also had me thinking of just how much power the independent voter has in the Oklahoma election.

As you can see from this graph, Independent voters equal to about 11% of the potential voting pool. Democrats represent 47%. Republicans represent 41%. But actual election results paint a far different picture. One in which election results do not match voter registration at all.

I am going to look at the last 3 Presidential elections. In each of these elections, the Republican candidate won in Oklahoma despite being outnumbered by Democrats alone. Yet, in each of these elections, the voter turnout was far lower than the total registration numbers.  So let’s start in 2000.

2000 Presidential Election

The 2000 Presidential election is the only one of the three we will be visiting here that was not limited to 2 choices. This election actually had four candidates that Oklahoma voters could choose from. However, the results from this election did not deviate much from the trends shown when viewing the last 3. Here are the results:

  • George W. Bush (Rep) – 744,337 votes
  • Al Gore (Dem) – 474,276 votes
  • Patrick Buchanan (Ref) – 9,014 votes
  • Harry Browne (Lib)- 6,602 votes
  • Total Votes Cast – 1,234,229

Now, let’s look at the voter registration numbers as of January 2000:

  • Democratic Party – 1,189,332
  • Republican Party – 734,382
  • Independent – 174,649
  • Libertarian Party – 267
  • Reform Party – 120
  • Total Registration – 2,098,750

As you can see from the numbers, there is an almost complete lack of any correlation between registration and voter turn out. The only numbers that make any bit of sense is that of the Republican Party and the two minor parties on the ballot. However, It is quite likely that not all those who registered as Republican voted at all. So much of those votes cast could have come from registered Democrats and Independents. What we can see clearly is that only 58.8% of those registered actually voted.

2004 Presidential Election

The 2004 Presidential election returns us to a cycle in which Oklahoma voters were limited to two choices for President. However, even with this significant change, the election results were not too indifferent from that of 2000. Here are the results:

  • George W. Bush (Rep) – 959,792 votes
  • John Kerry (Dem) – 503,966 votes
  • Total Votes Cast – 1,463,758

Now, let’s look at the voter registration numbers as of January 2004:

  • Democratic Party – 1,022,442
  • Republican Party – 720,121
  • Independent – 195,334
  • Libertarian Party – 455
  • Reform Party – 25
  • Total Registration – 1,938,377

Surprisingly, we see far fewer registrations that year than we did 4 years prior. We can also see that the total number of voters jumped from 58.8% in 2000 to 75.5%. The loss of 160,373 voters over the course of 4 years does not correlate here either. It seems that there was a generally greater interest in the Presidential election that year.

2008 Presidential Election

The 2008 election continues the cycle of only 2 choices for President. However, this is the first of the 3 elections in which the candidate chosen by Oklahoman voters did not win the General Election. Here are the Results:

  •  John McCain (Rep) – 960,165 votes
  • Barack Obama (Dem) – 502,496 votes
  • Total Votes Cast – 1,462,661

Now, let’s look at the voter registration numbers as of January 2008:

  •  Democratic Party – 1,012,594
  • Republican Party – 790,713
  • Independent – 219,230
  • Total Registration – 2,022,537

You will note that from the previous election, there was very little change in voter turn out. We also see that the Reform and Libertarian Parties were officially dropped from party status. Voters registered under those parties were reassigned to Independent. This time we see a 72.3% turn out rate, meaning the increase in registered voters did not correlate with voter turn out.

2012 Presidential Election

As we move into the 2012 election season, Oklahomans will be treated with not 2 but 3 Presidential options. If all goes as planned, the Americans Elect Party will have Gary Johnson as its candidate on the Oklahoma ballot. In anticipation of this election, we will use current voter registration numbers and the data from previous elections to hopefully predict what the turn out and results might be.

2012 Registration Numbers

Here are the voter registration numbers as of January 2012:

  • Democratic Party – 943,283
  • Republican Party – 828,257
  • Independent – 229,070
  • Total Registration – 2,000,610

As you can see, we have seen a slight drop from 4 years prior in total number of registered voters. You can also see some considerable change in the numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans. Democrats continue to lose members and Republicans continue to gain. Keep in mind that these numbers reflect voter registrations in January. Since then, the Americans Elect Party has gained official state recognition and there has been some change. According to recent reports the numbers are as follows:

  • Democratic Party – 942,388
  • Republican Party – 850,560
  • Americans Elect Party – 5
  • Independent – 234,141

Even this does not paint a full picture as there are technically more than 5 members of the Americans Elect Party at this time. However, it is still reflective of major trends in the election. As you can see from these numbers, in just a few months, the Republican Party gained 22,000 members. This is probably due to high demand in Oklahoma to unseat Obama.

2012 Presidential Election Predictions

So what does this meant for the coming election? What will we see as the turn out? For this we will look at the previous elections and see where trends lie. If we just look at the last two elections we can expect a roughly 73-75% voter turn out in which the Republican candidate will win by a ratio of nearly 2:1. With a third candidate on the ballot, if previous trends are to be followed, I don’t see that win ratio changing much. Looking back at the 2000 election, the ratio was closer to 1.5:1 when combining Democratic, Libertarian and Reform votes.

So my question at this time is, what would happen to the election if all registered Independents voted that way? What would happen if all registered Independents voted for Gary Johnson? First, Johnson would not win Oklahoma on the Independent vote alone. However, it could shake things up. I am going to make some assumptions on the minds of voters here. Let’s say that voter turnout will be 75% following the current trends. We will spread that evenly among all party registrations. Meaning 75% of registered voters in each party and Independents vote in the election. So this is the hypothetical voter turnout, based on the second set of registration numbers (adding 5 more Americans Elect members to accommodate more recent changes):

  • Democratic Party – 706,791
  • Republican Party – 637,920
  • Americans Elect Party – 7
  • Independent – 175,605
  • Total Votes Cast – 1,520,323

Since Republicans have won the last 3 Presidential elections in Oklahoma, It is clear that a number of Independent and Democratic voters crossed party lines to vote for the Republican candidate. Which means that somewhere along the lines of 137,000 or more Democrats vote Republican and nearly all Independent voters vote Republican.

If we base predictions on the 2000 election, we could see a minority of votes going to Gary Johnson. Since that election saw a much lower voter turn out than the last two, it doesn’t follow those trends. But it can be something we can learn by. In that election, 15,616 voters voted for the Reform and Libertarian candidates combined. That is roughly 1.3% of the total votes cast. If we adjust that up while keeping a grounded view, we could say that in today’s election climate 3.3% would vote for Gary Johnson. We would see this spread:

  • Republican Candidate – 999,639
  • Barack Obama – 500,920
  • Gary Johnson – 19,764

This brings us back to that near 2:1 win ratio for the Republican Candidate. Back to the same ole, same ole. In this case, the Americans Elect Party will not receive enough votes to retain party qualification in the state and third parties will be back where they were before. Nothing will have changed, Oklahoma will still have no real effect on the national election.

However, if all Independent and Americans Elect Party Members vote for Gary Johnson we have the following spread:

  • Republican Candidate – 843,791
  • Barack Obama – 500,920
  • Gary Johnson – 175,612

In this situation, The Republican candidate will still win Oklahoma. However, Gary Johnson would have helped the Americans Elect Party to retain official party status in Oklahoma, having received 11.5% of the vote. This would be a major victory for a third party in Oklahoma on its own. Very few parties have been able to remain ballot qualified since the ballot access process was changed in 1974.

Of course the absolute best case scenario would be for Gary Johnson to win Oklahoma. This would take some effort in getting disenfranchised Democrats and Republicans to vote for him. If those 137,000 Democrats and a similar percentage of Republicans, about 21.5% or 151,960 voters, (View the Primary results for the potential number of disenfranchised Republicans) voted for Johnson we could see a much closer race.

  • Republican Candidate – 554,831
  • Barack Obama – 500,920
  • Gary Johnson – 464,572

Even in this scenario, the Republican candidate would still win, but by a much narrower margin. For Gary Johnson to win completely, he would need to pull far more votes from both the Republican Candidate and Obama. At this time, I find this scenario to be the least likely, but still a good thing to hope for.

Conclusion

So this is my suggestion to all registered Independents and disenfranchised Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma. If you are going to vote, vote for Gary Johnson. Don’t listen to the naysayers who claim you are “voting for Obama.” Oklahoma probably still won’t go to Obama at all. Oklahoma hasn’t gone to a Democrat in many many years. However, voting for Gary Johnson will spark a huge change in Oklahoma election history in which a 3rd party becomes a viable option and a force for change on a state level. That is one of the best things that could happen. If by some chance, a significant portion of Republicans and Democrats decide to join in on the vote for Gary Johnson and he wins the state, even better for Oklahoma.

So again, don’t vote against your fears, vote your conscience. Vote Gary Johnson for President. That is the only way to truly win.