The filing period for candidacy in Oklahoma ended on April 11 this year. I decided to take a look at just what type of November ballot we will have in Oklahoma this year. What I am going to do is go through each office and list the numbers of elected officials who will be “elected” at which stage of the process. For these purposes we have three stages:
- Uncontested – These are those who will take office simply because they filed for candidacy and no one else did. These are uncontested seats.
- Primary – These are those whose only challengers are within the same party. This means they will have won their seat after primary votes are cast.
- November – These are those who have a challenger outside their party and will be decided in November.
For statewide or federal races, I will actually list each office and when it will be decided. For state house and senate seats, I will simply list the abbreviated total results. You can see a list of all those who filed for candidacy at the State Election Board. Let’s get busy:
US Senate
- Full Term: November, 5 Republican, 1 Democrat and 3 Independent.
- Partial Term: November, 7 Republican, 3 Democrat, 1 Independent.
US Representative
- District 1: Unchallenged, Jim Bridenstine (Republican)
- District 2: November. 2 Republicans, 2 Democrats and 1 Independent
- District 3: November. 3 Republicans, 1 Democrats
- District 4: November. 2 Republicans, 2 Democrats and 1 Independent
- District 5: November. 6 Republican, 3 Democrat and 3 Independents
Governor
- November, 3 Republican, 1 Democrat and 3 Independents
Lt. Governor
- November, 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
State Senate
The following is a list of all uncontested districts:
Districts Going to Republicans: 2, 10, 24, 30, 34, 36, 38
Districts Going to Democrats: 16
The following are all districts that will be decided in the primaries:
Districts going to Republicans: 12, 20, 22
Districts going to Democrats: 46
The following are all districts that will be on the November ballot. I have noted if there is an Independent on the ballot (I):
Districts: 4, 5, 6, 8, 14, 18, 26, 28, 32, 40, 42(I), 44(I)
Based on the current make up of the Senate and who has filed for election I predict that the make up of the Senate will be as follows: 37 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Even if Democrats won every single November election, they would still be in the Minority in the Senate.
State House
The following are all uncontested Republican districts. 35 in all:
Districts: 2, 5, 9, 11, 21, 22, 23, 25, 30, 33, 37, 39, 42, 47, 48, 50, 51, 52, 55, 57, 58, 59, 60, 64, 66, 67, 68, 70, 71, 74, 75, 80, 81, 84, 90
The following are all uncontested Democratic districts. 15 in all:
Districts: 4, 8, 13, 15, 18, 19, 24, 34, 44, 72, 73, 77, 78, 92, 94
The following are all districts decided in the Republican primary. 11 in all:
Districts: 27, 31, 38, 41, 53, 54, 61, 69, 79, 98, 101
The following are all districts decided in the Democratic primary. 3 in all:
District: 7, 88, 89
The following are all districts that will have a November election. 37 in all. I have noted if there is an Independent on the ballot (I). In the races with an Independent, there are no democrats running:
Districts: 1, 3, 6, 10, 12, 14, 16, 17, 20, 26, 28, 29, 32, 35, 36, 40, 43, 45, 46(I), 49, 56, 62, 63, 65, 76, 82(I), 83, 85, 86, 87, 91, 93, 95, 96, 97, 99, 100
Based on the current make up of the House and who has filed for election I predict that the make up of the House will be as follows: 71 Republicans and 30 Democrats. They could regain the majority in the House if they won every single November election in which they have a presence, but that is a highly unlikely scenario.
Conclusion
Based on these numbers, it seems that when it comes to State politics, the vast majority of Oklahomans are not all that politically active. Just based on the State House numbers, Republicans are guaranteed a 46% presence in the House with the possibility of snagging another 37%. This means that Oklahoma will continue to have a Republican controlled House. It is not too surprising to see Democrats in the minority in all races this year. They will have only a guaranteed 18% presence in the House. They may capture some of the 37% up for grabs in November, but I doubt it will be enough to counter the guaranteed presence by the Republicans.
The 2012 election continued the Republican majority in the Senate. This election looks to keep that majority for another 2 years at least. With 10 of the 25 seats going directly to Republicans with most likely a majority of the November elections going to Republicans, it will be difficult to out the Republican majority in 2014. Essentially, all the 24 seats in 2016 would have to go to non-Republican candidates in order to break their majority hold. Unfortunately, if the last few elections are any indication, that will be near impossible as most seats are either decided at filing or in the primaries.
Of all races this year, we have 9 Independents running for US Senate or Congress. We have 3 Independents seeking the governor seat. Finally we have a mere 5 running for the State Legislature. This is 2 better than the last 2 elections, but far from making a statement to the Legislature. The state of Independents in this election is most likely a symptom of Oklahoma’s harsh ballot access laws. Since Oklahoma makes it prohibitively difficult to form new parties, many Independents are probably jaded toward the election process. This jaded attitude probably also explains why it has been so difficult to pass ballot access reform as well.
In the end, one thing is for sure, Republicans will continue to control the state government in all branches. We will continue to see a push furthering the Republican agenda. Some of it will be good. Some of it will be bad. But unless we can get a more politically active populace that is willing to challenge the status quo, we will not see real change in this state for at least another 2 years.